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In The Off-Season, The Imbalance Between Supply And Demand Is Becoming More And More Serious. &Nbsp; PTA Will Still Be Looking For The Bottom.

2010/7/8 15:32:00 31

In the domestic market, A shares fell 4.27% in June 29th to 2400, a 14 month low, and the commodity market was also dragged down by almost all the way.

After the central bank announced that the RMB exchange rate should be strengthened, it is in a weak position.

commodity market

There is a strong and short-lived rebound, but in the long run, the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to the export of domestic commodities, thus restraining the price of China's export related commodities, especially for textile and garment enterprises with higher export dependence.

Comparing the exchange rate reform in 2005 and 2010, although the RMB may not have much room for appreciation at present, judging from the current trend of commodities and stock market, the appreciation of RMB is playing an important role in China's economy.

The international market was held at the end of June.

G20

At the summit, Member States pledged to halve the policy deficit by 2013 and stabilize or reduce the proportion of government debt to GDP by 2016. The main keynote is to gradually withdraw from the stimulus policy.

In addition, the current economic situation in the eurozone has not been substantially improved, and is still a hidden danger of the global economic recovery.

global economy

The rebound slowed down the crude oil upward limit, and PX fell below 900. According to the main economic indicators recently announced by the major economies in the world, the global economy is in recovery, but the recovery has slowed down.

US dollar high oscillation pattern will be maintained and crude oil prices will remain under pressure.

Summer is the peak season for energy consumption in the United States. High oil stocks are expected to fall from high. With the impact of the Atlantic hurricanes and other emergencies, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are expected to gradually improve in the next two or three months.

However, the eurozone is plagued by the sovereign debt crisis. The economic outlook is worrisome. The economic recovery of various countries is also a tortuous process. Many uncertainties hidden in the world economy will limit the upward trend of oil prices.

On the whole, the international crude oil market is expected to continue to oscillate, but the slowdown in the global economic recovery will limit its upward trend.

The price difference between PX and naphtha and MX has been running at a break even point of 300 or 180 US dollars / ton for a long time. Although PX manufacturers have been in a state of deficit for a long time, PX prices have dropped to a certain level, but due to overcapacity in the whole year, the increase of PX in June is also reasonable.

Based on the PX price in July 5th, the production cost of PTA is only 5874 yuan / ton, according to the spot price 7050 corresponding PTA production profit is 1176 yuan / ton, so PTA production has returned to the era of high profit.

Although the Asian PX contract in July was a high-profile offer of 1000-1030 US dollars / ton, which is quite different from the current market price, but from the PX's own situation, it is likely to continue to weaken. Even the mainstream manufacturers in the industry predict that the three quarter of PX will fall to 800 dollars / ton, when the Ying Kuiping balance of PTA will be 5200 yuan / ton.

The operating rate of the plant remains high, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the off-season is getting worse.

In June, the settlement price of PTA contract goods was reported to be 7300-7400 yuan / ton, down 400-500 yuan compared with May, and the contract price in July was 7600 yuan / ton.

At the end of June, due to the weakness of PTA futures, the spot trading was light, and the price remained basically at 7050-7150 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of PTA supply and demand, domestic output in the first 5 months was 5 million 720 thousand tons, import volume was 2 million 720 thousand tons, and demand was 7 million 500 thousand tons. The surplus of this year plus the surplus in 2009, the current social stock totaled more than 1 million 500 thousand tons, equivalent to the consumption of domestic polyester industry for more than one month.

However, the maintenance period of PTA is basically over. It has entered the low demand season. It has limited strength to rely on the procurement cycle to raise prices. Driven by long-term high profits, the operation rate of PTA devices has always been above 90%.

The pressure of warehouse receipts is decreasing, and the price difference between near and far months is not much.

As of July 6th, the number of registered warehouse receipts for PTA on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange was 35729, with an effective forecast of 4596. The total spot value was more than 200 thousand tons, although the decline was relatively small, but it was not very high, compared with the consumption of 1 million 400 thousand tons per month.

However, from the historical trend of registered warehouse receipts, it is still in a relatively high position. The ratio of virtual and real PTA is still at a high level, and warehouse receipts still constitute pressure on the price.

In the past 20 positions, the net position from 10 thousand hands around the median wander to 5471 hands, we can see long confidence is obviously insufficient.

The price difference between the 1101 and 1009 contracts is 230 yuan / ton from the near future contract price difference. Although it has dropped in recent days, such a spread structure is still not conducive to the long term. In the short term, it is difficult for PTA to rise strongly. In the later stage, the shift will be directly damaged by the shifting position. If the spread is widening, it is more likely to attract a large number of arbitrage disks.

It is worth noting that in September, the PTA warehouse receipt was facing a centralized cancellation, and the warehouse receipts could not be pferred to the 1101 contract. However, for the special PTA industry chain, the polyester factories were mainly contracted goods, and there was a practical demand for selling value on PTA futures. The warehouse receipts could be directly used for production, and the contract goods could be registered as warehouse receipts into the futures market, so that the rise of the 1101 contracts would be under considerable pressure.

Overall, the trend of PTA in July is hardly optimistic, or will continue to shake bottom and bottom again. Because of the good production and marketing of polyester in recent years, PTA has rebounded, and the pressure of 7250-7300 front-line can be paid attention in the short term.