Cotton Trend &Nbsp; PTA High And Wide Shocks

Upstream market

New York crude oil futures closed Friday at more than $104 a barrel, the highest level in 29 months, rising nearly 7% this week, because investors are worried about the global crude oil supply. The price rose 2.51 US dollars to close at $104.42 a barrel, or 2.5%.

Yesterday, Asian PX prices remained high and j stagnated and closed at $1665 / tonne CFR, Taiwan, down 5 US dollars / ton.

Spot market

Due to PTA futures The diving in the market caused the spot market atmosphere to suffer another freezing point. At present, the domestic market in East China has quoted 11700 yuan / ton in a fragmentary way, and the downstream market has been cautious in the market. The market has slipped to 11600 yuan / ton and less than expected, and the market negotiation is expected to be maintained at about 11600-11650 yuan / ton.

Futures market hints

Last week, the trend of PTA was significantly affected by the trend of domestic cotton futures, PTA itself. Goods in stock The impact of the situation and crude oil trend on PTA can hardly be reflected in futures.

At present, cotton futures in Zhengzhou once again encountered policy pressure after Monday's trading limit, that is, the national warehouse receipts can be converted to exchange warehouse receipts conditionally. Although we do not think that the increase in warehouse receipt data can completely change the possibility that cotton shorts are facing a tight squeeze, we believe that this information may suppress some part of speculative funds in the short term and give them psychological pressure.

For the PTA fundamentals, terminal Demand remains stable, although it may be difficult to produce explosive growth, but it will not decrease. Therefore, the demand faced by PTA in 3 and April is stable and good. However, a major problem facing the PTA industry chain is that polyester polyester is mostly negative. This also inhibited the increase of PTA. We have already mentioned in monthly reports that due to the high demand for PTA, but because of the limited acceptable price increase in the downstream, the trend of PTA in March will be very similar to the trend from last February to April.

This week, because the probability of obvious difference between Zheng cotton and the US cotton trend is very high, we do not think that the trend of PTA will follow the trend of domestic cotton trend following the US cotton fluctuation.

As far as operation is concerned, judging from the overall trend of no big trend in March, I think the current PTA can choose to buy below 11500 and gradually liquidate on the top 12200. This week, the market is still concerned about the linkage of cotton and PTA.