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Cotton Downlink Probability Increases Investors Need Caution

2011/5/24 13:53:00 30

Recently,

Zheng cotton

The main contract has been in the early low 24200 and early gap gap 25805 between the weak oscillation.

At present, the fundamentals are worrying.

Looking ahead, I believe that the long-term downward trend of cotton has not changed. Zheng cotton has a high probability of breaking down in the market. Investors are advised to pay attention to positions and rhythm control.

Capital chain is tested and bought and sold back to normal.

Affected by the country's multiple interest rate adjustment policies, plus the pressure from the agricultural development bank to repay loans, the current

Cotton enterprises

The capital chain has been severely tested.

Affected by a large number of large textile enterprises in Shandong, the price of cotton has been sharply reduced. Cotton prices in various regions have been continuously lowered. Cotton enterprises have been reluctant to sell cotton stocks in panic, but at the same time, they are reluctant to sell cotton stocks. But the market demand is low and there is no market price.

It is expected that the tight monetary policy will continue and the tight chain of cotton enterprises will be tested.

At the same time, the shrinkage of downstream cotton consumption will reduce the enthusiasm of textile enterprises in purchasing.

Under such circumstances, the upside down purchase and sale of cotton enterprises will become the norm.

Spinning enterprises pressure heavy consumption is difficult to see improvement

At present, more and more cotton mill as the main raw material, because the stock pressure is too large to join the production and stop production, cotton textile industry as a whole is in trouble.

According to a sample survey, there are more than 140 cotton spinning enterprises in Xiajin County, Shandong Province, with spinning capacity of more than 2 million spindles. At present, most textile enterprises in this county stock up to about two months (the normal stock is 15 to 20 days), and more than 60% are medium or small.

Do spinning

Enterprises began to limit production, and 20% enterprises had stopped production and holidays.

In addition, judging from the feedback from the 109th Canton Fair, most manufacturers are worried about the risk of the latter market.

From the overall paction data, more than 90% are short lists.

Although the turnover of textile and garment has not been announced, it is not optimistic that the exhibitors can reflect the situation.

In addition, the feedback from the 18 national cotton trading market held in Zhengzhou shows that the textile enterprises in addition to some large factories, the orders have declined, the external environment is better than the domestic market, and the mentality of spinning enterprises is generally empty.

There is a view that in the near future, due to the lack of registered stocks, the US cotton market will be in a tight position in July.

The main force continued to lighten the stock and the atmosphere was strong.

In terms of positions, the CF1109 contract of Zheng cotton in May 20th was significantly reduced by 31532 compared with the previous trading day.

The first 20 main players held a total of 127254 hands to pay the bill, holding 138111 orders for sale and 10857 hands for net clearance. Net positions were reduced by 342 hands compared with the previous trading day. The 5 top 5 holders bought 51694 hands, holding 62459 orders for sale, 10765 hands, and net positions less than the previous trading day.

The first 5 main positions have been reduced for 4 consecutive days, indicating that the main market is weak, and investors are advised to keep short thinking.