Macroeconomic Data Will Be Released Soon; &Nbsp Will Increase Interest Rate And Enter Sensitive Period.

　　 Steady growth and resistance inflation "Tug of war" joint monetary policy

Near monthly Macro economy On the date of data release, the possibility of the central bank reusing monetary policy tools increased.

According to the interest rate increase in the first two months, the frequency of deposit rate is raised once a month. June is the sensitive period of raising interest rates and raising the deposit rate. From past experience, the central bank's time to use these policy tools is before and after the announcement of the monthly macroeconomic data. Today, the macroeconomic data release day is approaching. interest rate The adjustment is more subtle.

　　 Cumulative effect is not completely released.

In fact, as early as the June 6th Dragon Boat Festival, the market generally predicted that the central bank would use monetary policy tools again. The last increase in deposit rate in May 12th was almost a month ago. The last rate hike in April 5th was more than two months ago.

"From the perspective of a number of economic indicators, there will be a slowdown in the next one or two quarters." Zhou Jingtong, senior economist of the Strategic Development Department of the Bank of China, believes that the effect of monetary policy in the first half of the year has not yet been completely released. "We should wait for the effect of the early monetary policy to be released completely before making any decisions."

In this round of tightening, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio for 11 consecutive times since 2010. At present, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions reaches a record high of 21%. At the same time, the central bank also raised the benchmark rate of deposit and loan for the four time in a row.

From the frequency perspective, from 1 to May, the central bank raised the deposit rate every month, and the time points were mostly around the monthly macroeconomic data announcement date. At the same time, in February and April, the central bank also raised the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans.

The macroeconomic data for May have not yet been released, but as of now, other statistics such as PMI released by the Statistics Bureau show signs of a slowdown in the macro-economy. At the academic and market level, the overtone of monetary policy has even been heard.

CICC released 6 research report that it is expected that overall economic activity in May showed a slight slowdown. The growth of industrial added value and fixed assets investment slowed down, the enterprises went to inventory behavior significantly, consumption steadily increased, export growth slowed down, import growth increased, and the surplus expanded compared with April.

On the one hand, economic growth is slowing down, but on the other hand, inflationary pressures should not be underestimated. Experts interviewed by reporters yesterday thought that the target of inflation control below 4% could hardly be achieved this year. Guotai Junan research report predicts that CPI will be 5.3% in May, 6% in June, and 4.8% in 2011 in May CPI.

CICC's research report also predicts that CPI will increase by 5.6% in May and 6% in June. If the rise of non food prices in June was not well suppressed or food prices continued to maintain a significant increase in the historical average, CPI could exceed 6% in June.

Therefore, whether the economic slowdown or inflation will dominate the central bank's monetary policy will become the key to the future trend of the dominant market.

　 Monetary policy and so on.

In June 3rd, the central bank reiterated in its "China financial stability report" that the prudent monetary policy will be implemented in 2011. Yesterday, the central bank also launched a 100 billion yuan huge 28 day repo to deal with the funds expired in the open market. These signs indicate that the central bank's determination to control inflation's monetary conditions is very determined.

"I don't think monetary policy is overshooting. Now it may be too early to relax the policy." Li Wei, an economist at China Standard Chartered Bank, believes that if the "growth rate" is still the top priority in the future, the central bank may adopt a "wait and see" attitude in 6 and July.

However, Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, believes that the current monetary policy should neither turn left nor turn right, and maintain normal neutrality. The term "neutral" mentioned here by the commissar is not aimed at overshooting, but "if the water is more mobile, the central bank still needs to take away the water."

"Prices will be a high point in 6 and July, but will remain relatively high after that." Zhou Jingtong also said that the current macro-control policy, especially the pace of monetary policy, should be slow and observe the effect first.

But the analysis report of the financial market department of China Merchants Bank believes that the current benchmark interest rate is far from representing the current real interest rate level. In recent months, the financial "disintermediation" has led to a far higher return on financial products than the current deposit rate. Whether it is anti inflation or changing the imbalance of funds, the deposit interest rate is further raised.

The above bank's report also said that the new real lending rate is close to the 2007 high point, and continues to uplift not only to the enterprise level, but also to the stock loan in the early stage. This leads to different interest rate expectations from different angles of deposit and loan. The final report tends to be more likely to raise interest rates, especially for deposit interest rates.

E Yongjian, a researcher at Bank of Communications (Financial Research Center), predicts that the possibility of raising interest rates in June will be relatively large. As the reserve ratio is relatively high, the future adjustment will slow down.