Bankers' Monetary Policy Tightening Is Expected To Decline Significantly.

The results of the 15 quarter survey released by the people's Bank of China on savers, bankers and entrepreneurs in the third quarter showed that residents' expectations for future price rises were still strong, and their willingness to invest in stocks fell to their lowest level since 2009.

More than half bankers expect monetary policy to "tighten", making up a significant decline in the last quarter.

Next quarter loans are expected to be "tight" and borrow.

Rising residents' prices

Expectations are still strong.

In the third quarter of 2011, the SAQ survey showed that the current price satisfaction index was 14.8%, down 2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

72% of residents believe that prices are "high and unacceptable", an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the previous quarter, and 26.5% of residents believe that prices are "acceptable", down 3.5 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Residents for the future

At present prices, interest rates and income levels, 82.8% of urban residents tend to save (39.7% of them prefer to invest in bonds, stocks, funds, etc.) in disguised form, 43.1% prefer "savings deposits", and 17.2% prefer "more consumption".

Residents' consumption will remain low, willingness to deposit will be higher and investment willingness will fall.

Among the main investment modes, the residents who choose "real estate investment" account for 23.6%, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter, and is still the first choice for residents to invest.

In other words, it is 21.3% of "fund financial products", "bond investment" 14.2%, "stock investment" 9.2%, and "stock investment" has dropped to its lowest level since 2009.

On the current level of housing prices, 75.6% of residents believe that "too high to accept", an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous quarter, the highest value since 2009.

For the second half of the housing price trend, 41.1% of the residents expected "basically unchanged", a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points over the previous quarter, 37.9% of the residents expected to "rise", a 1.7 percentage point increase over the previous quarter, 8% of the residents expected to "drop", 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous quarter, and 13% of the residents considered "not allowed to see", down 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

In the next quarter, the number of residents who wish to buy houses will account for 14.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Bankers' macroeconomic confidence index down

In the third quarter of 2011, the national banker questionnaire survey showed that the proportion of bankers who thought that the current macro-economy was "hot" was 35.7%, which was 2.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous quarter. The proportion of "normal" bankers was 52.5%, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous quarter. For the next quarter's economic trend, 28.3% of bankers expected to continue to be "hot". 57.4% of bankers thought that the next quarter was "normal" and 14.3% was expected to be too cold.

Influenced by macro Prudential judgement, bankers

The survey shows that the bankers' Monetary Policy Perception Index (the proportion of bankers who choose "moderate") is 35.7%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter.

For next quarter monetary policy, 42.1% of bankers expect to maintain an appropriate level, a 9 percentage point increase over the previous quarter, 3.5% of bankers expected to "loose", an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the previous quarter, and 54.5% of bankers expected to "tighten up", a 11 percentage point drop from the previous quarter.

For the next quarter interest rate, 56.4% of bankers believe that they will continue to "rise", down 11.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 43.1% of bankers expect to be "flat" this quarter, an increase of 11.5 percentage points over the previous quarter.

Enterprises expect loans to be tight

A survey of entrepreneur surveys in the third quarter of 2011 shows that corporate loan satisfaction continues to decline, and entrepreneurs expect tight loans and high borrowing rates.

In the three quarter, the corporate loan satisfaction index was 31.3%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. It is expected that the proportion of "tight" entrepreneurs in the next quarter will increase by 2.5 percentage points to 39.5%. It is expected that the proportion of entrepreneurs who are "high" in the next quarter will be increased 6.1 percentage points to 50.6%.