Cotton Continues To Lie Dormant For Spring Breeze

Current ICE Stage cotton The overall maintenance level is below 100 cents, and Zheng cotton maintains a narrow range of oscillation between 20000 and 20500. From global cotton supply, consumption On the other hand, the conditions for supporting cotton price rise are not valid, and cotton is still at the bottom. oscillation Mainly.

European debt crisis remains volatile

Last week, the yield of Italy's 10 year treasury bonds broke through 7% of the important barrier, hovering around 7.4%, becoming the highest point since the birth of the euro zone. 7% has always been considered by analysts as the "life and death line" of the yield of Treasuries in the European debt crisis. Italy's breakthrough of 7% means that it is likely to go on the same path as Greece, Portugal, Ireland and other countries. This makes Italy another storm in the eurozone after Greece. If handled carelessly, it is likely to make the European debt crisis rise again.

Seed cotton purchase prices continue to fall

At present, cotton picking in various main producing areas of China has basically ended. Cotton seed prices continue to decline, and seed cotton purchase prices continue to decline. At present, the overall purchase price of seed cotton has dropped by nearly 0.1 yuan / kg, and seed cotton prices are lower than cotton farmers' psychological expectations. At present, the 3 seed cotton price in the Yellow River basin is 4 to 4.10 yuan / Jin, 3.65 yuan to 3.80 yuan per kilogram, and the price of seed cotton in the main producing areas of the Yangtze River has been lowered again. At present, the 3 grade seed cotton price is about 4 yuan / kg; the prices of various seed producing areas in Xinjiang are steadily falling, and the price of seed cotton in the southern Xinjiang is about 8.5 yuan / kg, and the North Xinjiang price is 7.70 to 7.80 yuan / kg.

The purchase volume of state cotton has been maintained at more than thirty thousand tons recently, and Xinjiang cotton has accounted for more than 70%. As of 2011, cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 417040 tons in 2011. The total turnover of Xinjiang was 299080 tons, and the total turnover of the mainland was 117960 tons.

Insufficient downstream demand

Since the beginning of this year, the downstream sales of textiles have been sluggish, and the ex factory price of textile products has shown a trend of decreasing month by month. As of November 11th, the price of C32 and TC45 yarns was 26740 yuan / ton and 22800 yuan / ton, respectively, which was 280 yuan / ton and 350 yuan / ton respectively, compared with the end of October. Textile exports, data show that in October 2011, China's exports of textiles and clothing about 19 billion 650 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 10.39% over the same period, but the ring ratio fell by 14.49%, has been the three consecutive month of decline, which confirms the cotton textile industry chain demand downturn. Downstream clothing exports continue to decline, the downturn in demand may continue in the coming period, the export situation of China's textile and clothing is not optimistic.

Supply is adequate, and short-term upward pressure is high.

The latest projections from the US Department of agriculture (USDA) show that the world's cotton production in is 26 million 974 thousand tons, a decrease of 65 thousand tons compared with last month, 24 million 880 thousand tons of consumption, 23 thousand tons reduction, and 7 million 910 thousand tons of import and export volume, and a reduction of 40 thousand tons. The end of the world cotton inventory will reach 11 million 965 thousand tons, an increase of 28 thousand tons. Domestic cotton production is expected to reach 7 million 480 thousand tons this year, an increase of 25%. The industry estimates that it could even increase output by 30%.

In short, affected by the uncertainties of the European debt crisis and the influence of the fundamentals and policies of the upper and lower reaches, Zheng cotton will still oscillate in the 20000 - 20500 range in the short term. In the future, we need to continue to focus on the progress of the debt crisis in the euro area and the progress of the acquisition.