Will Wenzhou Shoe Enterprises Export Tough Battle?
Recently, including CICC, Nomura Securities (Asia) and JP Morgan chase launched one after another in 2012.
Macroscopic
The outlook for the economic outlook and the future of the A share market.
Agencies including these investment banks generally believe that China's economy will face greater downside risks in 2012.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, expects China's GDP in 2012
increase
Will reach 8.4%, consumption contribution increased, 4.5%, investment contribution declined, 4.4%, net exports negative contribution, -0.5%.
CICC believes that China's economy is the biggest in 2012.
risk
Still outside.
If the European debt crisis worsens into the global financial crisis, China's exports will be greatly affected, and at the same time, capital outflows will increase, and China's economic growth will be faced with a larger downside risk.
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Nomura, is more pessimistic. It is expected that China's GDP growth in 2012 will be 7.9%, the first time since 1998, less than 8%, which will be an unusual event for China.
Zhang Zhiwei predicts that the GDP growth will be 7.5% in the first quarter of next year, and the economic growth will obviously slow down.
He predicts that in the next two quarters, real estate investment will drop sharply, and industrial production will be hit harder. There will be a big possibility of a sharp decline in export growth.
External risks may be a great challenge and pressure for export oriented Wenzhou shoe enterprises.
With the continuous spread of the European debt crisis, some Wenzhou shoe enterprises began to turn their sales channels to ASEAN and other places. Cheap labor and raw material costs are great temptations.
2012, for the global economy, it is a critical period for Wenzhou's small and medium-sized shoe enterprises.
This export battle for export oriented enterprises will probably continue for some time.
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