It Is Difficult To Buy And Store The Weak And Weak &Nbsp;

In the short term, the domestic cotton (21160, -45.00, -0.21%) spot and futures prices will be difficult to be downloaded by the purchase and storage price and the new tariff policy promulgated by the Ministry of finance. However, the situation of oversupply of cotton market is difficult to change, and cotton prices will gradually return after the purchase and storage work is finished.

In December, Zheng cotton price was planted at home and abroad. intention Decline, cotton market rebound and textile enterprises replenishment demand driven upward, the recent accelerated performance. Because of the habit of replenishment before the industry, this kind of market rebound is not uncommon in the past.

　 Storage and storage stage

The effect of the state's open purchase and storage policy on stabilizing cotton prices has shown that the 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage price will become the bottom of the stage. Up to now, China has collected nearly 2 million 500 thousand tons of cotton. According to past experience, price fixing and unlimited storage and purchasing have a significant supporting effect on commodity prices, and when the reserve reaches a certain scale, the price of commodities will go up. The main reason for this situation is that the enlargement of the storage capacity is bound to reduce the supply of the market, resulting in the tightening of cotton liquidity, thus supporting the cotton price. In addition, most of the middle and high grade cotton will enter the national reserve, and later high-grade cotton will become more and more popular. cotton To prepare for a rainy day. Of course, the cotton that the state stores and stores is not consumed, but becomes the bargaining chip of the state to regulate cotton prices, and puts pressure on the market when cotton prices go up.

Finished product inventory declined, raw materials need replenishment.

The recent upward trend in raw material prices has brought confidence to the textile market, and prices of yarns and grey fabrics have stabilized and some of the best sellers have even risen slightly. Sales situation is getting warmer, resulting in a downward trend in textile enterprises cost inventories. Although yarn inventory is higher than that of the same period last year, it is generally stable, and the inventory of grey fabric has dropped since last December, and now it maintains at a normal level.

Sales in the downstream market are still sluggish, and textile enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials, mainly with the purchase and purchase. China cotton information network survey shows that in December 2011, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises was 795 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 41 thousand and 300 tons, a decrease of 70 million tons compared with the same period in 2010. However, new orders for textile enterprises have the need to replenish inventories ahead of time, and inventory of raw materials is expected to increase further.

　 Cotton prices still have potential risks in the rebound

Since March 2011, domestic textiles and garments Exit The growth rate almost showed a decreasing trend month by month, and the growth rate in the two quarter was lower than that in the same period in 2010. According to customs data, China's textile and apparel exports in December amounted to about US $21 billion 744 million, an increase of 9.18% compared with the same period last year. From 1 to December, textile exports amounted to US $94 billion 700 million, an increase of 22% over the same period last year, down 5.6 percentage points from the same period in 2010, while garment exports 153 billion 200 million US dollars, up 18.4% over the same period last year, down by 2.5 percentage points over the same period in 2010. Europe and the United States as the main export place of China's textile and clothing, due to its economic situation is still unstable, it is expected that China's textile and apparel exports in 2012 is still not optimistic.

It is understood that the first batch of sliding tax quotas in 2012 has been approved and will be issued to enterprises in the near future. At present, the price of cotton is higher than before, but the price advantage is still outstanding. The market parties are very keen on quotas and cotton imports. Domestic implementation of the purchase and storage policy, good quality, high grade cotton is mainly used for storage, market cotton is mainly low quality cotton, cotton quality requirements of high textile enterprises are bound to import high-quality cotton, so as to reduce domestic cotton demand. Since the second half of 2011, China's cotton imports have increased significantly. The latest customs data show that in December, China's cotton imports reached 790 thousand tons, the largest monthly import volume in the single month. In the long run, the issuance of quasi tax quotas will benefit domestic cotton prices, which will help reduce domestic and foreign spreads.

Cotton intention declined in the new year, lower raw material Inventory and falling stock of finished products are conducive to supporting the rebound of cotton prices, but after the end of seasonal replenishment, if the downstream orders are still unchanged, cotton prices will still have downside risks.