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The Economy Is Expected To Hit Bottom And Stabilize &Nbsp; Inflation Will No Longer Become A Stumbling Block In The Stock Market.

2012/3/26 11:50:00 9

With some fund companies taking the lead in disclosing the 2011 Annual Report, the outlook for economic situation and A share performance in 2012 has also surfaced.

Fund companies more consistent judgment is that this year inflation will no longer become a stumbling block in the A share market, and more concerns are focused on the slowdown in economic growth.

However, although the economy is not optimistic, most institutions are not pessimistic about the market.

Under the expected downward trend of inflation, economic stabilization and monetary policy moderate relaxation, the A share market at the bottom of valuation is expected to get out of structural recovery this year.

The Fund believes that

This year's macro environment

There are new changes compared with last year. The trend of downward inflation in 2012 will not change, and economic growth is still in a downward stage, and monetary policy will be moderately relaxed.

The downside of inflation and the relaxation of monetary policy constitute positive aspects this year, but there is still some concern about economic growth.

The Bank of China Blue Chip Fund pointed out that the inflation factor is turning to the controllable stage with the policy regulation lasting more than one year. It is expected that after March 2012, the CPI will drop to about 3%, and the CPI is expected to average 3.5% in the whole year.

At that time, monetary policy will be shifted to ensure a steady economic growth and appropriate relaxation.

"The downward trend in inflation in the first half of this year is basically determined."

BOC growth

The Fund pointed out that the central economic work conference held last December will shift the general keynote of economic work from "controlling inflation" to "moving forward steadily", and will implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy in 2012.

It is worth noting that monetary policy is robust and neutral, but there will be no comprehensive easing similar to 08 years.

Before the economic downturn is stabilized, monetary policy will be dominated by reserve ratio and open market operation, so as to ensure the stability of market liquidity and the reasonable growth of credit scale.

As the economic downturn has stabilized and inflation has gradually bottomed out, monetary policy easing will be reduced. Economic work will pay more attention to promoting economic restructuring through active fiscal policy.

Peng Hua selection fund said, looking forward to 2012, in the context of "de real estate", the economic growth rate is inevitable. In the 1 quarter, due to asset price decline and enterprise level inventory, economic growth will continue to slow down, and in the 2 quarter before and after the formation of a year-on-year growth rate of low point, the annual economic growth showed a soft landing trend, the risk of a hard landing is not large.

It is worth noting that the economy will not rebound rapidly after hitting the bottom, but will remain relatively stable.

Peng Hua selected Fund pointed out that, because there is still no way to see the core driving factors of economic growth, it is difficult to make a judgment of the rapid economic growth in the second half of the year.

"Looking forward to 2012, we believe that the general trend of downward inflation will not change, while economic growth is still in a downward phase and is expected to hit bottom in the middle of the year.

Monetary policy will be moderately relaxed in the first half of the year.

Since 2012, the top ranked Thai trust fund has been quoted as saying.

The Fund believes that after a substantial adjustment in 2011,

A share market

At the bottom of historical valuation.

In 2012, liquidity showed a gradual easing trend, and the policy environment is constantly improving. China's economy is more likely to achieve stable exploration. Therefore, the performance of the A share market in this context should be better than that in 2011.

"The domestic economy will be dominated by stability, and monetary policy will gradually shift to neutrality. Fiscal policy will still actively intervene in the direction of pformation and people's livelihood. The stock market will gradually show structural opportunities this year after the double valuation of last year's profit valuation."

The small cap fund of Nong Yin said.

Tai Xin blue chip selection also pointed out that, after a substantial adjustment in 2011, the space for the overall valuation center of the A share market to move down in 2012 has been limited.

Coupled with the foregoing macro background, the market will end the unilateral downward trend last year. With the change of policies and fundamentals, the market may show the operation of the box.

And the South Long Yuan fund manager is right, the A share market is in the middle and long-term bottom area, so the fund has maintained relatively high stock allocation.

But there are also relatively cautious views.

Penghua Innovation Fund

The market is likely to be more complex this year than in 2011.

Despite the gradual easing of inflationary pressures in the future, the structural adjustment of the domestic economy has not been completed, and the uncertainty of the continuation of the overseas financial crisis has also made the market variable, and the big pattern of market shocks has not changed.