2014: There Is No Miracle In China In The Horse Year.

< p > the Chinese miracle ended in 2014.

This is not a crash, but a return to normal.

China may experience about 7.5% growth in ten years, and then the economic growth rate will further slow down.

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< p > signs have been shown.

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< p > the authoritarian system is facing challenges and challenges come from all aspects.

In the past two years, the attention to scale has given rise to the quality and cost, the haze of the sky, making the day like night, and those who give up the word of profit, have to consider the life cost of "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107105 "> extensive economy < /a >.

The collapse of a large number of people, such as Liu Zhijun, makes people peek at the huge cost of corruption behind investment. This is a key factor for the debt rate to rise and the quality of assets to drop and no one is responsible.

Concentrating resources on major events left behind serious sequelae while creating miracles. The efficiency of large enterprises has declined, and private enterprises in the manufacturing sector have been driven to a dead end.

The reason why China's economy has continued for 30 years is due to the marketization of three words. Now, in order to scale up the market, it has betrayed its beliefs.

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< p > even if the decision-making level wants to maintain the investment led economic miracle under the authoritarian system, it is impossible.

Fundamental conditions have changed dramatically.

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< p > heavy liabilities accompanied by high investment make enterprises overloaded.

At the same time investment growth and asset quality decline, these inefficient assets bring more liabilities, rather than profit growth.

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< p > contrary to the official version of the entrepreneur's confidence index, the entrepreneurs I saw are not the best ones except for IT games, Internet Finance and unique technological advantages.

How about 2014? I don't know.

2015 is too far away.

Most entrepreneurs have already emigrated or are doing immigration.

Perhaps HSBC's a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107108", a purchasing manager's < /a > index, which focuses on small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, reflects the fact that most Chinese entrepreneurs feel more truer. In January, the initial value of PMI fell to 49.6, falling to its lowest level in 6 months. It is expected that China's first quarter economic growth will further slow down compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Rising labor costs and overcapacity and falling product prices have become an unbearable pain.

Those who stand and speak without pain will blame entrepreneurs for not preparing for the winter ahead of time. Why not upgrade their products and not build their own brands? Have you heard one thing? In the field of ineffective protection of intellectual property rights and Shanzhai style, innovation is seeking death, and no innovation is waiting for death.

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< p > listed companies are generally regarded as "draft companies" with outstanding performance and special care. They often have extra income such as financial subsidies.

The financial report of listed companies is the most optimistic report.

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Last April 27th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange released the report of the Shanghai Stock Exchange listed company in 2012. The statistics show that the weighted average earnings per share, net assets per share, net cash flow per share of operating activities and net assets earning rate of 954 listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2012 are 0.55 yuan, 4.05 yuan, 1.29 yuan and 13.53% respectively. P

Compared with 2011, earnings per share were basically flat, net assets per share and net cash flow from operating activities increased by 10.36% and 30.31% respectively, while net assets yield decreased by 9.74%.

In May 6th of that year, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued an empirical analysis report on the 2012 annual report of listed companies. In 2012, the operating income of Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies increased slightly, and net profit declined.

Excluding the financial sector, the net assets yield of listed companies also gradually declined, from 11.86% in 2010 to 8.43% in 2012, down 3.43%.

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< p > inventory and asset liability levels of listed companies have further improved.

Data show that the financial sector is the backbone of the A share market.

In 2012, 52 companies, including banks, insurance, brokerages and other financial stocks, accounted for 2% of the total listed companies, with a net profit of 1 trillion and 90 billion yuan, accounting for 56.77% of the total net profit of Listed Companies in 2012, and the net profit of 16 listed banks reached 1 trillion and 30 billion yuan.

Excluding the above financial stocks, the net profit of A share listed companies was 834 billion yuan, down 10.99% compared to the same period last year, and then eliminated the real estate industry's net profit of about 190 billion, down 19% compared to the same period last year.

In the era of intellectual success, the education industry should be good. Chinese students have made great contributions to American universities to get rid of the debt trap. Unfortunately, backward education and harsh competition have made the education industry unbearable. It has become the biggest decline in the performance of listed companies, which has dropped by 1511.62% compared with the same period last year, earning -0.29 yuan per share.

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Industries such as the financial sector, whose profits have risen sharply, are not as bright as P.

By the end of the 3 quarter of 2013, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 563 billion 600 million yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio was 0.97%.

According to a report released by Asset Management Co, the number of new non-performing loans increased by more than 5% in 2013, and the non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector will reach 1%~2%.

Banking stocks are generally broken, the threshold for acquiring bad assets is reduced, and the rate of bad debts is rising is a common phenomenon.

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The increase in bad debt rate and the high profits of Finance indicate that the economy is at the edge of the bubble. P

The real economy is becoming more and more difficult. The European and American manufacturing industry is returning to the world. Cook, who is known for controlling the cost of the industrial chain, has gradually moved the apple production line back to the United States. China's a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107102" > financier "/a" and entrepreneurs are killing each other in the high profit loan mire.

A country with large population in the process of industrialization, a country with a large number of laborers without systematic training, the hollowing out of manufacturing industry ahead of time is not the gospel.

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If P wants to maintain the economic miracle, the miracle is stamped.

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< p > the Chinese government is pushing ahead with reform to cope with the predicament.

But those who hope to witness China's political miracle after China's economic miracle will be disappointed in the next ten years. In order to deal with widespread dishonesty and deal with "no decree of Zhongnanhai", China's power will be more concentrated compared with the previous ten years, and the reform will be carried out with political authority. The recent bungshop incident shows that China is still a pre modern country, still in the Bismarck era, and any reformer can only bow to this soil.

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Recently, the core of power in China has promoted the hurricane like anti-corruption storm. In order to reform the economic structure and change the political ecology and to overthrow some privileges, the credit system has been established. The best result is that China has entered the era of sensible P politics.

The worst result is the reopening of the late Qing Dynasty and the runaway control of power. In view of the current concentration of resources, the probability of such a situation is relatively low.

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< p > economic reform is twists and turns. Despite the most powerful determination, the consideration of consequences and the desire for soft landing will eventually become a realistic choice.

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< p > economic policymakers are prepared to implement a prudent monetary policy. However, when the benchmark interest rate rose sharply, the central bank had to intervene. In January 21st, it released 255 billion yuan liquidity by reverse repurchase, and 23 yuan reverse repurchase 120 billion yuan, putting 40 billion yuan in state treasury cash, which was equivalent to a direct deposit reserve ratio.

This is a compromise under the pressure of reality. The financial structure has been out of balance until the end of the middle age.

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< p > it is hoped that there will be a large-scale debt default in China and people who build financial risks to wash and sleep. This is unlikely to happen in China.

The trader is full of worries and full of paternal love, protecting local debts and big business debts.

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< p > no matter politics or economy, shock therapy is not allowed in Chinese dictionaries.

Reform is a gradual process. This process is ten years, twenty years, there will be repeated in the middle.

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< p > can be determined that China's economic miracle is gradually disappearing and replaced by normal growth rate. The growth of 7.5% is not enough. This is the data acceptable to all parties and the price of reform.

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