Zhou Xiaochuan: Deposit Interest Rate Liberalization Or Realization Within One Or Two Years

< p > < strong > < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > interest rate marketization > /a > the last step < /strong > /p >

< p > Zhou Xiaochuan said that the liberalization of deposit interest rate is definitely in the plan, which should be the last step in the marketization of interest rates.

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< p > on the issue of interest rate liberalization, Zhao Qingming, an associate professor at the school of finance, University of International Business and Economics, believes that the deposit interest rate can be realized within one or two years, which is expected.

The reform of interest rate marketization has been going on for nearly 20 years, and now there is an accelerating trend.

At present, the key is to do a good job in the basic work of interest rate liberalization, including the arrangement of bank bankruptcy regulations.

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< p > in view of the impact of the liberalization of deposit rates on capital prices and commercial banks, Zhao Qingming believes that after the liberalization of deposit rates, the cost of capital and liabilities will be relatively upward.

From abroad, the net interest margin (NIM) will be narrowed and the profits of banks will be reduced at the beginning of the liberalization of deposit interest rates.

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P, chief economist of Communications Bank (3.63, -0.01, -0.27%), thinks that under the background of interest rate liberalization, the tight liquidity pattern is hard to change, and Yu Ebao has suddenly changed the lowest interest rate deposit to the highest level, which has brought great pressure to the rising cost of debt.

Under the trend of narrowing spreads, banks' risk preferences will be forced to rise.

However, credit is still a scarce resource under tight financing supply and demand and social financing constraints.

This year's lending rate will continue to rise after 2013, and this will not be conducive to structural adjustment.

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< p > < strong > RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > internationalization < /a > "homework" did not do well < /strong > /p >

< p > aiming at the issue of RMB internationalization, Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that the internationalization of RMB has not been carried out for a long time, and the base proportion of RMB usage is relatively small, and the growth rate is very high.

But in fact, the proportion used in international trade and investment is relatively low.

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< p > "if RMB is really internationalized, there are still a lot of homework done."

Zhou Xiaochuan believes that, first of all, these years the central bank mainly focused on lifting the unnecessary restrictions on the use of the renminbi, including some laws, regulations and business regulations.

Secondly, we should abolish discrimination against the renminbi and use Renminbi in places where hard currency can be used.

But none of the work has been done.

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< p > Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that it is necessary to steadily and steadily realize the convertibility of RMB capital account, which will make a more substantial improvement in the international ease of use of RMB and the confidence in RMB.

For promoting the use of Renminbi, we did not arrange speed, rhythm and time in advance.

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< p > Zhao Qingming believes that from the perspective of the people's Bank of China, it is necessary to promote the use of RMB more, but create conditions to create conditions gradually from policy, strength and confidence so that the renminbi can be selected for use.

But we must strengthen guidance and formulate some measures.

In response, Zhao Qingming made three suggestions: first, to establish a settlement convenient network as soon as possible; the two is to maintain currency stability and exchange rate stability, and the RMB can not always be a trend of appreciation, which is not conducive to internationalization of the RMB. Three, the central bank should encourage RMB settlement and make RMB enter the international trading system.

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< p > < strong > respecting < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > market rule < /a > respecting market choice < /strong > /p >

< p > in the light of the recent devaluation of the RMB, Zhou Xiaochuan believes that generally speaking, the financial market is very sensitive to short-term changes.

However, from the perspective of the people's Bank of China, it is more concerned about the trend of the medium term, and the short-term trend does not represent the medium term trend.

The people's Bank of China respects market rules and respects market choice.

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< p > Zhao Qingming believes that the value of the Renminbi should be determined by the market.

Although the renminbi has depreciated recently, it is still within a reasonable range.

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"P will be stable in the medium term," said Ha Jiming, vice chairman and chief investment strategist of Goldman Sachs investment management division.

In the medium term, exchange rate is mainly affected by the balance of payments of nations, especially the current account.

China's current account balance reached 10% of GDP in 2006-2007 years, and then maintained a downward trend, which has dropped to 1.65% of GDP in 2013.

In the future, our country will maintain a small surplus in current account in 2014-2015 years, mainly because the recovery of major trading partners will promote exports, and investment deceleration will slow down imports. This indicates that the RMB will remain stable in the medium term, or even slightly appreciate.

In addition, the implementation of RMB internationalization also needs to ensure that the RMB exchange rate is stable or appreciating.

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< p > Ha Jiming believes that in the long run, the RMB is facing greater devaluation pressure, especially in the process of RMB internationalization.

The long term monetary value of a country depends on the growth of labor productivity and purchasing power parity.

If unit labor costs (wage divided by productivity) increase faster than other countries, and inflation rate exceeds other countries, resulting in a decline in domestic purchasing power, the country's currency will eventually depreciate.

The instability of the financial system, high debt and asset bubbles will increase the risk of final currency depreciation.

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