The End Effect Of The Quarter Is Gradually Decreasing.

This year's 9 month end superimposed October golden week, but did not bring significant surprises to the financial products market.

Industry analysts said that with the implementation of the CBRC article 236, banks will gradually reduce the situation at the end of the month and the end of the season.

At the end of the month and the end of the season, banks will set off a wave of "collecting and storing tide".

From 2013 to the middle of 2014, the number and scale of financial products released by commercial banks across the month increased sharply.

Puyi

It shows that in 2013, 888 products were distributed across the year in March, a 98 increase in the chain ratio, a 26.05% increase in the product scale, 868 in the June issue, an increase of 196 in the annulus, an increase in the scale of products to 1 trillion and 226 billion 600 million yuan, a 1059 increase over the next year, a 244 increase in the chain, and an increase of 91.03% yuan to 1 trillion and 542 billion 100 million yuan in the product size.

Secondly, with regard to the price of issuing financial products, taking the financial products with investment period of 1-3 months as an example, comparing the product prices in 2013, it can be found that the products issued across the month are generally more competitive than the non monthly products, especially in the middle of the year, and the price of the products issued in June has risen from 4.33% in early days to 5.37% in the p month issue.

Comparing the prices of the products issued at different times, the price advantage of the products issued in 2013 is the most prominent one in the year, and the trend is increasing gradually in the second half of the year.

It is worth mentioning that in the year, the prices of cross season products were higher than those of other p monthly products corresponding to the same quarter, with the corresponding increase in product prices in June and December the most obvious.

Take the financial products for 1-3 months, for example, the price of products increased by 106, 66 basis points to 5.37% and 5.96% respectively.

Obviously, compared with the general cross month issue products, in 2013, the price of products issued across the quarter was higher.

Compared to 2014, although the number and scale of financial products issued across the month still reached a climax in the first three quarters, the price advantage of products declined somewhat.

In the middle of this year, the price increase of the products issued across the month has not been seen. The maximum price difference is only 13 basis points.

However, due to the central bank's two directional and quasi targeted measures in 2014, the liquidity of the funds was released, and the price increase over the last quarter was not as good as that of last year.

Take the end of the third quarter of this year as an example. In the last week of September, the circulation of financial products decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the average expected rate of return was only 5.12%, unchanged from the previous week.

Among them, the expected yield of 5.50% and more than 279 financial products, accounting for only 36% of the market, the overall performance of the product is less than last year.

Even if the National Day holiday is overlaid, the number of high-yield products is still small.

As of September 29th, there were 86 National Day special RMB non structural financial products on sale, with an average expected rate of return of 5.43%. Only 5 products had an expected yield of more than 6%.

Industry analysts said that some of the measures adopted by the CBRC during the year eased the financial pressure in the system, making the liquidity of the market stable, and suppressed the behavior of banks to boost earnings and financial management products because of the pressure of capital demand.

At the same time, in September this year, the CBRC issued the 236 article, requiring commercial banks to strengthen the management of deposit stability, and restrict the "rush hour" at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the deviation of deposits should not exceed 3%.

Warburg Securities believes that from the purpose of Article 236, on the one hand, it is aimed at reducing the monthly financing cost of the banks, and implementing the State Council's policy of supporting the real economy and reducing the cost of financing by the banking industry; on the other hand, it also hopes to reduce the large fluctuation of bank deposits and the fluctuation of bank credit, thereby maintaining the stability of the real economy.