2015 America'S Intention To Grow Cotton Less Than USDA Forecast Of Agricultural Outlook Forum

The US Department of agriculture will announce the actual coverage area in June 30th. From past experience, the gap between the sowing area and the intentional area of the upland cotton in the past 20 years is 6000 acres - 2 million 116 thousand acres, averaging 606 thousand acres.

The intention area was 12 times lower than the actual area, and 8 times higher than the actual area. Weather, cotton Prices and other crop prices will continue to affect cotton farmers' planting intentions. Foreign people believe that the US area report does not reflect the fact that the sowing date of Texas and sorghum is delayed.

according to U.S.A According to the statistics of the Ministry of agriculture, as of March 29th, corn planting in Texas had only been completed by 20%, and sorghum sowing only finished 11%.

In addition, in April 6th, the US Department of agriculture will issue the first cotton production report in 2015.

According to the US Department of agriculture's intention to plant cotton in 2015 Forecast Report In 2015, the United States intended to grow cotton in an area of 9 million 549 thousand acres (58 million 10 thousand acres), down 13% from the same period last year, the lowest level since 2009.

Among them, the area of upland cotton is 9 million 399 thousand acres (57 million 100 thousand mu), a decrease of 13.3% compared with the same period last year, and the area of Pima cotton is 15 Wan Yingmu (910 thousand mu), a decrease of 22% over the same period last year.

This forecast is lower than that of the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, but it is higher than the market forecast of 9 million 440 thousand acres and the NCC forecast of 9 million 428 thousand acres, which is generally at the intermediate level of the market pre forecast, and is basically neutral to the market.

The ICE futures contract fell to 62.17 cents in the 10 minutes after the report was released, and rebounded rapidly in the next 30 minutes, and the median rate rose to recover some of the lost territory of the day before May.

Specifically, in addition to Oklahoma, other cotton producing areas have reduced their cotton planting area. The largest yield of Texas land cotton was 5 million 700 thousand acres, down 8% from the same period last year, accounting for 60.7% of the total land cotton in the United States.

In the southeastern United States, the reduction was 18.1%, 27.5% in the central and southern region, 7.5% in the southwest and 30% in the western region.

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After three years of "steady profits", cotton processing enterprises entered the shuffle stage. Since the beginning of this year, the state has lost the support of State purchasing and storage. From Shandong to Hebei, the operation of ginning plants is generally not as good as in previous years.

The domestic cotton planting area has been reduced, and the situation of processing enterprises has been increasing. However, the price of lint declined after a slight rebound years ago. On the one hand, the high inventory of national storage stocks has lowered the price of lint. On the other hand, the factories have to raise the purchase price and compete with each other in order to ensure the start of seed cotton, and profits have been further reduced. Seed cotton is difficult to harvest, processing little profit, or even losing money, which is the common "heart disease" of cotton ginning mills.

In 2014, almost half of the ginning plants chose to stop work or change careers. According to statistics, Shandong Dezhou 85 400 type cotton processing enterprises, 2013 annual scale purchase processing 69, 2014 year fell to 52; 2014 in Shandong Binzhou 34 ginning plants, only a dozen started operation; Hebei Jizhou 15 400 type cotton processing enterprises, 2014 year scale open acquisition processing only 400.

Shandong Dezhou Wucheng County Xinghai cotton industry related responsible person said, according to his understanding, at present, the local cotton farmers hand only 10% of seed cotton, the acquisition is coming to an end. This year, processing capacity is half less than last year, and processing is almost unprofitable. The responsible person believes that in addition to high-grade products, the price of lint is not optimistic in the future. This year's survival environment is particularly difficult. Only larger enterprises can withstand normal operation.

Shandong Dongying five cotton textile industry this year bought only 5000 tons of lint cotton seed cotton, compared with the previous year of storage and storage, reduced by 2000 to 3000 tons. Moreover, because of the low price of leather cotton, in order to avoid the further loss of stock backlog, they adopted fast fast selling strategy and finished the sale of finished products before the Spring Festival. A ginning factory in Jizhou, Shandong even sold cotton seeds directly after the purchase of seed cotton, and no longer started.