Inventory Problem In Domestic Cotton Market

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According to the current domestic cotton production level of about 7 million 500 thousand tons and about 6 million tons of cotton, it may take 5-10 years to digest.

During this period, the policy of throwing and storing will normalize and throw away the stock will test the government's ruling wisdom, and will have a huge impact on the cotton market and the whole industrial chain.

I want to go to the market oriented country.

The train of thought will be further explored.

The time.

According to statistics, the annual cotton consumption in China is about 7 million 500 thousand tons, the import volume is about 1 million 500 thousand tons, and the output is about 6 million tons.

The output of cotton in 2015 is going to decrease, but at least 5 million tons. The gap between supply and demand is about 1 million tons per year.

According to this calculation, it takes 10 years for the cotton to be fully digested, and if the output is reduced to 4 million 500 thousand tons, the amount will be increased to 8 million tons, the import volume will remain unchanged, and the annual digestion of 2 million tons will take 5 years.

If we only consider domestic digestion, it should be in 5-10 years.

Ways to digest inventory.

Internationally speaking, export can be increased, and the necessary condition is that domestic cotton prices will be in line with international market prices.

From the perspective of China's huge textile production capacity, it is better to export cotton to the domestic market rather than to export into domestic textiles, and at the same time promote the development of other sectors of the industrial chain, increase domestic employment and tax revenue.

So under normal circumstances, the export of cotton is not a desirable way to digest national reserves.

In extreme cases, when the price of cotton in the international market is higher than that in the domestic market and is close to domestic production costs, it may throw away the international market.

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Recently, the information feedback from the parties in Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces has weakened and the market is concentrated.

Cotton prices basically have a decrease of 100-200 yuan / ton, and sales volume is generally. Since the price of cotton has been basically stable for a long period of time, some of the textile enterprises have recently stocked their hands with high quality hand picking cotton to prevent the shortage of quality resources last year, and the new flower has not yet been listed this year, of course, it is only limited to well funded enterprises in the 7-8 months.

According to the seasonal demand in the past, the middle and low count yarns should be used in the autumn and winter fabrics. However, the impact of the low price of the imported yarn will lead to the sale of the domestic low count yarn, except for the varieties that are strictly required.

Therefore, the prices of C21S, C32S and C40S in Hebei, Shandong and other places in recent years are reduced by 100 yuan / ton, which are 19000-20200 yuan / ton, 20500-22000 yuan / ton, 22500-23800 yuan / ton respectively.

Even so, the inventory of most enterprises will increase. The inventory of small and medium enterprises is more than 25-30 days, an increase of 3-5 days compared with last month.

At present, the order and price of polyester cotton varieties and viscose varieties are relatively stable, basically in an orderly manner.