Economic Recession Has Become An Issue Of Concern To More And More People.

Last week, the Fed announced the first rate hike in nearly ten years. Wall Street's debate over the Fed's rate hike has come to an end. The recession has become an issue of concern to more and more people.

On the same day last week when the Federal Reserve announced raising interest rates, real estate investor and billionaire Sam Zell said he could confirm that the US economy was in trouble. "I think the possibility of falling into recession in the next 12 months is high."

The reason for Zell is that the appreciation of the US dollar has an impact on the domestic production and business of the United States, and has weakened the international competitiveness of the United States.

Zell's worries are not unreasonable.

In the past 12 months, the Wall Street journal has tracked the US dollar index of the 16 currencies to about 9%.

Zell said that "weakness is everywhere" in the US, and it is hard to see which areas will be stronger in the future.

Citigroup strategist also believes that next year the United States is likely to fall into recession, with an estimated probability of 65%.

In making the above prediction, Citigroup's interest rate strategist also wrote in the 2016 outlook that the "curve inflation" reversal rate may be earlier than consensus expectations.

At present, the difference between the nominal yield of 2 and 10 years of US Treasury bonds has narrowed to 128 basis points, which is the smallest gap in six years. Citigroup sees it as a signal for another round of recession.

Raoul Pal, a former macro fund manager, is expected to be global in the next 12 months.

The probability is 65%.

Pal values the manufacturing index of the ISM, which has fallen below 50 for the first time in seven years.

If the US ISM manufacturing index fell from 48.6 to 47, the Pal predicted the global recession rate will rise to 85%, because the slowdown in US manufacturing growth will also drag the rest of the world.

Parts of Russia and other parts of the world have already slipped, and most South American countries are close to recession.

The European economy has been helped by the depreciation of the euro and the fall in international oil prices, but the momentum of economic growth has begun to weaken.

As for the US, Levy believes that the US economy is indeed weakening, but the risk of a sharp decline is not so great. The environment outside the United States will be even more serious.

There was no global recession after World War II.

However, the investment and export scale of China's emerging markets has been huge for the past 20 years, and its impact can no longer be taken lightly.

Levy further predicts that if the investment in emerging markets decreases and profitability decreases, the income of enterprises and some public facilities will be reduced, not only supporting debt financing problems, but also beginning to cause the value of collateral to shrink and stock market valuations will also decrease.

In the face of all these shocks, there will be no global recession.

It will also depreciate as a whole, and the fact that the main central banks of the world do not have room to cut interest rates will also worsen the situation.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan did not think the recession would come so fast.

Economists at the bank predict that the probability of recession will be as high as 76% in the next three years.

The long-term projections of nine different indicators, such as consumer confidence and unemployment, show that the risk of the US economic expansion is close to the end. The Fed's interest rate increase will not affect this trend.

In contrast, Jeffery Gundlach, the "king of bonds", predicts a much smaller recession next year.

Gundlach said in an interview with CNBC that the probability of recession in 2016 was 1/3.

He thought that

Strengthening is not the culprit of the recent collapse in commodity prices.

Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is not so pessimistic about the US economic outlook.

Last week, after the Fed announced the rate hike, Yellen said she could not confirm the probability of a recession in the US next year, but it is certain that the Federal Reserve's policy of ending zero interest rates is the right time.

In other words, even if the Fed raises interest rates, the chances of a recession in the US are limited.

Yellen said that if the Federal Reserve delays the start of raising interest rates, it may eventually have to raise interest rates abruptly to avoid overheating of the US economy and domestic inflation far beyond the Fed's target.

Leon Cooperman, a hedge fund billionaire, is optimistic that there will be no recession.

In a recent interview with CNBC, he said that the market width should exceed the average level of the common stock next year, and next year it will be a year of economic growth.

If we want to usher in a recession, the width of the market will reflect this.

A year ago, we predicted that the recession of the United States this year, the probability of 65% of the great depression, "prophecy emperor" David Levy has different views on the United States and the global economy.