Fourth Quarter Economic Performance Is Relatively Good.

According to the December 2015 PMI data released in January 1st, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 49.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and China's non manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, up 0.8 percentage points.

From the steady growth of manufacturing PMI and the further enhancement of PMI trend in non manufacturing industries, the annual economic growth of around 7% has certain foundation and conditions, and 2016 is expected to usher in a smooth start.

From the PMI12 sub index of manufacturing, compared with the previous month, except for finished product inventory, employees, production and business activities, the 3 indexes have declined, and other indexes have increased.

Among them, the 3 index of new export orders, purchase volume and purchase price rose more obviously, with an increase of more than 1 percentage points.

Development Research Center of the State Council

Researcher Zhang Liqun believes that the PMI index of manufacturing in December has increased slightly, indicating that the steady state of the underlying economy is becoming more apparent.

The index of new orders, export orders, backlog orders increased, finished product inventory index decreased, purchasing volume and import index increased, reflecting the decline of inventory level as the market demand increased, and the production and business activities of enterprises recovered.

In the manufacturing industry PMI stabilized and picked up, the non manufacturing activities in December showed a further development trend.

On the same day, China's non manufacturing PMI showed an increase of two months in December, rising to 54.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, an increase from last month.

Cai Jin, vice president of China logistics and purchasing Federation, believes that while the market activity is accelerating, the quality of economic development also has a favorable trend.

In particular, the revival of market demand is obviously universal. It shows that the retail consumption and food and Beverage activities led by holiday consumption increase significantly, and the consumption of the public tends to be active; the information service industry, such as telecommunications and the Internet, continues to grow and the new consumption is not decreasing; the construction industry's new order index has picked up a lot, which has strengthened the supporting role of infrastructure construction to economic growth; and the activities of the financial industry have been rising continuously.

Stability continues to consolidate.

"Overall, the business activities, market demand, prices and employment activities of non manufacturing industries have rebounded, which laid a good foundation for the economic opening in 2016.

Although the recovery of non manufacturing industry has certain holiday factors, it is more reflected in the inherent requirement of accelerating the development of service industry accompanied by economic pformation.

Cai Jin is full of confidence.

Chen Zhongtao, an analyst with China Logistics Information Center, said that from the perspective of manufacturing PMI, the fourth quarter economic operation remained stable and stable, and Naka Yujin and the steady good trend were showing a "stable, double fast" basic characteristics.

First, although the PMI index of the fourth quarter is slightly lower than 50%, the overall operation situation is basically stable.

Two is

Drive faster and consume more.

In the fourth quarter, the PMI index of the equipment manufacturing industry averaged 51.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared with the three quarter, and the PMI index of the high-tech industry and consumer goods industry was higher than that of the manufacturing industry, 3 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry.

Three, the traditional industries such as high energy consumption have been adjusted to speed up and the quality of supply has been improved.

In the fourth quarter, the high energy consumption industry accelerated to fall, and the PMI index dropped 1.4 percentage points over the three quarter, which is lower than the 3 level of the manufacturing industry.

In the view of many experts, the fourth quarter economic performance is relatively good.

"However, there are still some aspects to be concerned about in the current economic operation."

Chen Zhongtao said, one is the traditional industries to speed up the adjustment, enterprises to accelerate the differentiation process, the manufacturing industry employees index shows downward fluctuation characteristics.

Before and after the Spring Festival is a period of great flow of personnel, we need to pay attention to changes in the employment situation.

Two, from the point of view of investigation, the current enterprise's concern about exchange rate fluctuation has increased, and we should pay attention to maintaining the stability of exchange rate.