Cotton Market Or Will Usher In "A Beautiful Village."

Since the beginning of the Spring Festival in January, the plan for the Spring Festival holiday of the mainland cotton textile mills has been released, and some cotton processing and business enterprises are eager to ship cash and expect the 1/2 months to arrive at the bonded 2015/16. The number of cotton, cotton and Uzbekistan cotton in India will rise sharply and the interest rate will be reduced. The domestic cotton, Xinjiang cotton and real estate spot will be weak. The lowest point of the CF1605 contract will be 11125 yuan / ton.

However, the author thinks that no matter from the peripheral market or bulk market, the downward adjustment space is quite limited.

After having experienced the fog and haze after the "doubting of the mountains and rivers," or the "one village of Liu Ming Hua Ming" will be ushered in.

The reasons are as follows:

First, the mystery of Xinjiang cotton output in 2015/16 is unveiled. The pressure of supply and demand of high-grade cotton will run through the whole cotton year.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in 2015, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang was estimated to be 3 million 669 thousand tons, a decrease of 14.9% over the same period last year.

Moreover, feedback from the mainland cotton mills, cotton operators and inner cotton enterprises shows that the impact of spinning is not only the low length of cotton fiber (27mm and below), but also the high horse value (most of the C2 in South Xinjiang is more than 60% or even 70%), and the serious shortage of fracture strength is even more prominent in the purchase of cotton mill. Kashi, Akesu,

To the North Xinjiang, Kuitun, Shihezi and other cotton areas, the enterprises with more than 50% of the flower strength S3 and below accounted for more than 50% in the middle and later stages. So how many "double 29" and "double 28" lint can be selected by cotton enterprises? It is expected to come out after March.

Two, the RMB to us dollar depreciation trend establishment, import

Costs continue to rise.

In January 6th, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar accelerated again, and the spot exchange rate on the shore dropped by 6.55 yuan day, refreshing its low level in the past four years, and the offshore RMB was suppressed before the 6.7 yuan integer fall. Some institutions and investors analyzed that the devaluation rate of the RMB in 2016 reached 15%. Therefore, if foreign exchange and exporters are unable to negotiate the exchange rate, Chinese buyers will be very cautious even if the import quota of cotton is sufficient.

Three, the national cotton store's rotation is not to suppress cotton prices for the purpose, but to meet the needs of cotton textile enterprises.

For the cotton price trend in the first half of 2016, the time points of the national cotton store and the bid price are the key factors. In view of the demand pressure of domestic high grade and high quality cotton in 2015/16, timely rotation of high quality national cotton stores to meet the needs of textile enterprises matching cotton seems to be duty bound. But before the start of the wheel storage policy, it is necessary to take account of the survival condition of cotton growing areas such as the domestic cotton planting area and cotton ginning plants in 2016, and the cotton target prices directly supplement the income of the farmers.

Some cotton enterprises believe that from 2014, the State Cotton Storage and delivery business is not satisfactory. The color, strength, horse value, impurity, length and other indicators of the national cotton store are still worrying. The role of the national cotton mill is likely to be icing on the cake rather than providing timely help.