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After The Announcement Of The Monetary Policy, The Pound Rebounded Against The US Dollar.

2016/7/17 9:50:00 33

Monetary PolicySterlingUS DollarExchange Rate

The Bank of England, the Bank of England, announced in July 14th that the benchmark interest rate would remain at a low level of 0.5%, and that the scale of the financial asset purchase plan, namely, the quantitative easing policy, would remain unchanged at 375 billion pounds (about 498 billion 800 million US dollars).

Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, said at the end of June that the Bank of England could take further monetary easing measures to cope with the "referendum" effect of the "off Europe" referendum.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in July 1st, the UK economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of this year, and its growth rate was lower than 0.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to the service sector, the other three industries, including agriculture, industry and construction, all shrank.

Three international rating agencies have also reduced the outlook for sovereign credit rating to negative, with standard & Poor's and Fitch downgrading the sovereign rating of the UK.

Carney said in June 30th that in his view, the outlook for the UK economy has deteriorated, and that monetary easing measures may need to be launched in the summer.

From the market perspective,

Capital outflow

More recently, there are more signs that the risk is starting to spread to the real estate sector. Some of the largest real estate funds in Britain have stopped investors' redemption.

In early July, the Bank of England issued a renewed warning that Britain's risk of "off Europe" began to materialization, and eased bank capital requirements, releasing the potential liquidity of 150 billion pounds for the market.

Therefore, many economists have predicted that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates in July.

However, the bank's July interest conference minutes showed that there was only one bank of the United Kingdom.

monetary policy

Members of the committee voted for the interest rate cut, while the remaining eight members advocated maintaining the current interest rate unchanged.

A preliminary assessment of the impact of Britain's "off Europe" on sterling exchange rate, interest rate and market was made.

The monetary policy committee says it will work to support economic growth and try to bring inflation back to its target level.

In addition, most members expect monetary policy to be adjusted in August.

The Bank of England has now kept its basic interest rate at a low level of 0.5% for more than seven years.

There was no reduction in interest rates that day, though it was somewhat disappointing for investors.

Pound

However, after the announcement of the monetary policy, the pound rebounded against the US dollar and rose to the top of 1 to 1.34.

A number of market analysts believe that although the substantive impact of "off Europe" on the fundamentals of the UK economy is still not evident, the rate cut is already on the road, but the time is not yet available.

The problems facing the UK economy are not cyclical but structural. The market's demand for money supply needs further observation and data demonstration.

Although the market is concerned, monetary easing is not the only way to solve the problems facing the British economy.

Carney has previously pointed out that the Bank of England will adopt any "necessary measures" to support economic growth, but the central bank itself can not affect the economic trend.

Monetary policy can not directly offset the impact of huge negative shocks on the economy.

The future potential of economic growth and its impact on employment, real wages and wealth does not depend on monetary policymakers, but needs greater decision-making and greater planning through other areas.


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