The Demand For High Quality Cotton Will Be Torn Up By Speculation.

In the year of 2016, whether the organization, Futures Company or cotton processing enterprises, traders and cotton mills all thought that the supply and demand of cotton would be "relaxed abroad and domestic tight". The "tight balance" is the consensus of the industry.

In order to prove that this year, cotton prices will rise and fall.

Cotton supply exceeds demand in 2016 and excess capacity is about 60-80 tons. However, high grade and high quality cotton will probably have a gap in the latter part of the year. After all, this year's real cotton and part cotton area in southern Xinjiang are not strong enough to break the strength and length, so the demand gap of high quality cotton will be ripped.

In late November, with the picking and acquisition of cotton and cotton in Xinjiang and the mainland, the accuracy of domestic cotton production will be more close to reality and more reliable than in 8 and September. Considering the idea and external environment of the government's "going out of stock and competing for self-sufficiency", the quota of cotton imports in 2017 will still be 894 thousand tons (1% tariffs), and the "think" of the processing trade or sliding tariff quota should be broken. However, there are variables in supply: first, how many yarns will be imported in the year of 2016/17. The impact of the domestic cotton small and medium cotton mill's production capacity and the low and medium quality cotton consumption is also worthy of great attention. Two is the number of planned cotton production and the actual turnover situation in March 6, 2017.

up to now

The total inventory is about 8 million tons, and the quality can still meet the needs of most spinning enterprises. Therefore, the scale of the 2017 round is still about 2 million tons.

So let us boldly estimate the total annual cotton supply: 1 and 2016, the total output of cotton in China is about 485-490 tons (4 million 877 thousand tons of Data Center Information Center); 2, the total annual import volume is about 1 million 100 thousand tons (according to customs statistics, China imported 960 thousand tons of cotton in 2015 this year, and the number of Chinese enterprises signing cotton in the United States increased significantly this year); 3

Estimated 2 million tons.

The total supply of cotton is about 8 million tons at the beginning and end of the inventory.

How much cotton consumption will be in China in 2016/17? If we take 2015/16 as a reference, we should consider the impact of imported cotton yarn on the whole consumer market.

According to customs statistics, China's total imports of 2 million 34 thousand and 800 tons of cotton yarn decreased by 12.47% compared with the same period last year. But this year, we need to pay attention to the current domestic cotton price and the factory price difference of India S-6 cotton ginning factory 5000 yuan / ton, the port India Pakistan C32S and the difference between cotton yarn and domestic yarn 1000-1500 yuan / ton, so the cotton yarn imports are very active. The author expects that the cotton yarn imports in September will exceed 2 million 500 thousand tons, so the cotton consumption will be reduced by 600 thousand tons or more. In addition, the cotton consumption in 2016 will be extended to September, and the consumption of cotton in 2015/16 should be reduced by 1 months, about 600 thousand tons.

Therefore, the author estimates cotton consumption in the 2016/17 year is about 4 million 750 thousand tons (domestic cotton output in 2015) +96 million tons (imported) +260 million tons (cotton stored in rotation) -60 million tons (external yarn folding cotton consumption) -60 million tons (Extended) =711 million tons.