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When Did Glycol Start To Dominate The Market?

2019/10/21 10:51:00 4

Entering the October, the domestic glycol market basically performed well, and the price of the market began to go downhill. After many exchanges, it turned out that the industry was pessimistic about the market trend of the long-term ethylene glycol, and the market had a strong desire to sell short.

Market trend of ethylene glycol in China

Fig. 1 price chart of domestic glycol Market

Source: lung Chung

One Domestic supply changes (reduced supply by 14 thousand and 300 tons)

Long Zhong information statistics, (last October 4th -10 10 days), the average load of ethylene glycol in China is about 71.06%, of which the start-up load of ethylene glycol is about 71.54%, the weekly output is about 97 thousand and 200 tons, the load of coal glycol production is about 70.36%, and the weekly output is about 67 thousand and 600 tons. (October 11th -10 17 October 11th), the average starting load of ethylene glycol in China is about 64.91%, and the ratio is -8.65%. The load of ethylene glycol is about 61.62%, -13.87%, the output is about 83 thousand and 700 tons, the ratio is -13.89%, the starting load of coal glycol is about 69.57%, the ratio is -1.12%, and the weekly output is about 66 thousand and 800 tons, which is more than -1.18%.

Two Changes in domestic demand (reduced demand by 3 thousand and 200 tons)

Long Zhong information statistics, (17 -10 October 11th this week), polyester industry output of 1 million 9 thousand and 200 tons (excluding PETG), the ratio of -0.32%%, the operating rate of 89.64%, the ratio of -0.3%. Compared with the previous period, the demand for ethylene glycol was reduced by 3 thousand and 200 tons and 1 thousand and 100 tons.

Conclusion: supply is much lower than demand.

Three Port Inventory (continuous storage)

Fig. 2 Comparison of domestic and Eastern main port stock and market prices in China

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, as of October 17th, the port port of East China's ethylene port inventory was about 516 thousand tons, which was 16 thousand and 200 tons lower than that of Monday. Among them, 315 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 11 thousand and 800 tons per annulus, a daily average delivery of some 9340 tons of a mainstream warehouse, 52 thousand tons of Ningbo, a reduction of 5 thousand tons per annulus, 32 thousand tons of Shanghai and Changshu, a reduction of 18 thousand tons per annulus, 90 thousand tons of Taicang, a 1.3 reduction in the ring ratio, and an average daily shipment of about 2680 tons in the mainstream reservoir area; 27 thousand tons in Jiangyin, an increase of 1.3 tons in the ring.

Domestic ethylene glycol supply and demand balance sheet

Table 1 domestic ethylene glycol supply and demand balance sheet

Unit: 10000 tons

	Ten 3 June	Ten 10 June	Ten 17 June	Ten 24 E	Ten 31 E	Eleven 7 E
Main port inventory	Fifty-four point four five	Fifty-four point nine five	Fifty-one point six zero	Forty-eight Point Four Zero	Fifty-one point one six	Fifty-two point seven five
Import volume	Nineteen point seven zero	Seventeen point two zero	Eighteen point three zero	Twenty-three Point Four Zero	Twenty-two point one three	Twenty-three point two zero
Ethylene glycol production	Fifteen point seven zero	Sixteen point four eight	Fifteen Point Zero Five	Fifteen point seven zero	Fifteen point six zero	Sixteen point eight zero
Total supply	Thirty-five Point Four Zero	Thirty-three point six eight	Thirty-three point three five	Thirty-nine point one zero	Thirty-seven point seven three	Forty
Polyester demand	Thirty-four point two zero	Thirty-four point four two	Thirty-four point three one	Thirty-four point one zero	Thirty-three point nine zero	Thirty-four
Other requirements	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four	Two point two four
Aggregate demand	Thirty-six point four four	Thirty-six point six six	Thirty-six point five five	Thirty-six point three four	Thirty-six point one four	Thirty-six point two four
Supply and demand gap	-1.04	-2.98	-3.20	Two point seven six	One point five nine	Three point seven six

Source: lung Chung

Conclusion: from the above table, although the supply of domestic products decreased this week, the inventory of ethylene glycol terminals continued to decline. However, the effect of polyester terminal promotions was not good, the finished product inventory continued to accumulate, the demand began to decrease slightly, and the expected increase in the late imports was expected. The market was pessimistic about the market trend of the long-term ethylene glycol, and the market had a strong desire to sell short. It is not sentiment that dominates the market, but now the industry is getting more and more powerful. It only releases the future ahead of time, leading to a premature decline in the fundamentals of the glycol market.