The Season For The Missing Orders Is A Bit Cold In The Second Half (June 28, 2020 -7 3).

First, domestic cotton yarn futures and spot prices continue to decline.

This week, domestic cotton yarn futures and spot prices continued to decline. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price 18639 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 16 yuan / ton, yarn cotton price difference 6788 yuan / ton, compared with last week reduced 10 yuan / ton; cotton yarn futures clearing average price 19122 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 20 yuan / ton, higher than spot 483 yuan / ton, the difference narrowed 4 yuan / ton last week.

Two, international yarn prices continue to fall.

According to part of the cloth factory reflect, recently, traders, customs clearance of India, Pakistan and Vietnam cotton yarn has a phenomenon of price dumping, the main reasons are: first, the current round of reserve cotton is the cotton needed by spinning enterprises, the price is lower than the imported yarn, the textile enterprise procurement enthusiasm is relatively high; two, a large number of spinning enterprises to transform domestic trade, the competition is increasingly fierce, the phenomenon of price suppression and debt collection has become the norm.

(1) 32 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 18388 yuan / ton, down 26 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India [1] [1] expanded 10 yuan / ton to 251 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the average price of Vietnam port delivery was 18477 yuan / ton, down 19 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the difference between China and Vietnam was 4 yuan / ton to 163 yuan / ton last week.

(two) 21 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 17375 yuan / ton, down 13 yuan / ton compared with last week. The difference between China and India was 5 yuan / ton to 367 yuan / ton last week. The average delivery price of Pakistan port was 17255 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan narrowed 3 yuan / ton to 487 yuan / ton last week.

(three) 10 rotor spinning

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 12355 yuan / ton, down 23 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and India increased by 20 yuan / ton to -493 yuan / ton last week.

Three, the price of chemical fiber is down more than 100 yuan.

This week, the price of chemical fiber increased by more than 100 yuan. The national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price of 5590 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 140 yuan / ton, cotton polyester price difference increased 134 yuan / ton to 6261 yuan / ton last week; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) average price 8567 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 133 yuan / ton, cotton sticky price difference increased last week 127 yuan / ton to 3284 yuan / ton.

Four, outlook for the future

1, the reserve cotton rotation is expected to reduce the cost of spinning enterprises to use cotton.

It is reported that in the current consumption trend of "downgrading" and domestic demand, the state-owned cotton with high cost performance has become the first choice for textile enterprises to purchase, and at the same time, it is expected to reduce the cost of using cotton for spinning enterprises. Data show that the first week of the reserve cotton liner, 1-3 days in July, the turnover rate was 100%.

2, June cotton spinning PMI: order bookings dropped.

In June 2020, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry increased slightly to 50.9%, the former value was 50.6%, the four consecutive month was above 50%, the non manufacturing PMI was 54.4%, the former value was 53.6%, and also for four consecutive months on 50%, and it continued to rise.

Judging from the purchasing managers' index (PMI) situation in cotton textile industry, in May 2020, the new order of cotton spinning (PMI) was 45.31%, an increase of 5.45% from last month, 50% of production, 1.83% of increase, 45.59% of the start-up rate, 9.34% of decline, 46.97% of cotton yarn, 7.89% of reduction, and 44.37% of cotton storage. Cotton spinning PMI's new orders and production rebounded from last month, but the rate of start up decreased. (see table below)

　　 3, June, China's Textile City yard fell.

According to the data of China textile market, as of June 20, 2020, the turnover of knitted fabric, cotton cloth and polyester cotton cloth decreased by 50% compared with last month. According to the average weekly turnover, the turnover data at the end of the month is also hard to surpass May. (see below)

　　 4, the central bank lowered the rediscount rate.

The central bank decided to reduce the reloan and rediscount rate from July 1st. Among them, the interest rate of supporting agriculture to refinance and supporting small reloans was reduced by 0.25 percentage points. After adjustment, the interest rates for 3 months, 6 months and 1 years were 1.95%, 2.15% and 2.25% respectively. The discount rate is reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 2%. The interest rate cut is not universal, it is precisely irrigating agriculture, small and micro enterprises, shortening the transmission chain of monetary policy, reducing the financing cost of the real economy, and improving the "direct" nature of the policy.

In summary, the reserve cotton rotation is expected to reduce the cost of spinning enterprises for cotton, but from the perspective of downstream weaving enterprises, the domestic market is weakening since the beginning of July. Many enterprises began to lower the start-up rate due to the shortage of subsequent orders, and the inventory of finished products has increased. The impact of external epidemics is still variable. As a whole, the production of textile enterprises has been restricted. The upland price of cotton yarn is still facing resistance.

The price difference in [1] is the difference between domestic yarn price and foreign yarn price.