Hao Daming: RMB To Resume Rally Until The Four Quarter

The short term depreciation of the renminbi is partly related to the larger appreciation last year. In May 2013, according to the elasticity of RMB appreciation, we predicted that the appreciation of RMB theory would be about 2.74% in 2013, and the equilibrium level of exchange rate was near 6.12. As a result, at the end of 2013, the central parity of RMB rose by 3.093% in the 6.09692013 years, and the actual appreciation exceeded the theoretical appreciation. Now, the appreciation of the renminbi in 2013 is partly a response to the economic growth in 2012, partly in response to the economic growth in 2013, partly to the early reaction to China's economic growth in 2014.

More short-term RMB devaluation China's economy The uncertain factors of growth are related. Since the beginning of this year, sales of commercial housing have dropped, individual banks have suspended the financing of real estate sandwiched, and some other properties such as Hangzhou have gone on sale. These incidents have, to a certain extent, warned of the increase of uncertainties in the real estate market this year. Affected by the increase of uncertainty in the real estate market, real estate development investment, real estate related debt repayment and economic growth rate will be greatly affected. In the first half of this year, the uncertainty of China's economic development is increasing, and the devaluation pressure of RMB will exist objectively. Moreover, overseas market forecasts for China's real estate market and local government debt uncertainty are much more serious than domestic ones. This is an important reason why the appreciation of RMB market in 2013 is small and the depreciation rate is large in the first 2 months of this year.

For the next six months, RMB The exchange rate is faced with all kinds of uncertainties and the underlying dilemma. It is estimated that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the three quarter.

First of all, there are American economy Better and China's economic uncertainties increase. A simple perspective to observe the trend of RMB exchange rate is a comparison of economic growth between China and the United States. In the case of strong contrast between China's economic growth in the United States, the appreciation of the RMB has continued for 5 quarters since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Secondly, there are underlying advantages. Although there are various uncertainties, the rate of economic growth may slow down, but the growth rate of single GDP is less than 7%.

Overall, the appreciation rate of RMB theory in 2014 was relatively small. In 2014, China's new industrialization and urbanization will continue to push forward, and the economy is expected to maintain rapid growth. The growth rate of GDP will be significantly higher than that of the United States, and the RMB will maintain its appreciation trend. With the growth of 2014 China's GDP, 7.5% of the US GDP, and 4 of the appreciation of the RMB, it is predicted that the RMB theory will appreciate by about 0.9% in 2014, and the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB will be around 6.04.

In the short term, the appreciation of the renminbi will slow down significantly in the first three quarters of 2014, and the exchange rate will remain stable in the first quarter of the year, due to the uncertainty of the real estate market and the slowdown in economic growth. In the second half of this year, as the real estate market tends to be stable, the trend of China's economic growth is improving, and the fourth quarter of the renminbi will rise again.