What Does Zhang Lidong Mean By The Biggest One-Day Gain Of The RMB Exchange Rate?

On Monday, the renminbi suppressed the previous devaluation market with a big line. The spot exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 6.1888, up 362 basis points from the closing price of 6.2250 on the previous day and appreciated 0.58%. The central bank [micro-blog] announced that the RMB traded against the US dollar at an intermediate price of 6.1452, an appreciation of 23 points.

This sharp trend has indeed made investors, especially overseas speculators, feel the renminbi again. exchange rate The "market sense" is no longer what it used to be.

Then, what are the market implications behind this violent return?

First of all, the market once again verified the so-called official statement of "two-way amplitudes".

What needs to be confirmed is that the expansion of two-way volatility is not a choice, but shows that the recent "seesaw warfare" will continue. In view of the recent weakness in China's exports and other economic indicators, there are not many reasons to support it. RMB At the same time, after a steady fall in the previous stage, it is also very difficult for the renminbi to reappear in a wave of significant depreciation.

Indeed, the weakening of the renminbi is, of course, the internal cause of the active control of "visible hand", but it is also a reflection of the true state of the market. There was a rare deficit in China's trade in February, after which we had been living in a large surplus for a long time and took it for granted. Once the market suddenly changes, the exchange rate market will naturally react quite well.

The depreciation of the exchange rate, especially the larger one, should be based on the full assessment of the economic situation and the analysis of factual data. There is no conclusion that China's economic health has been deteriorated by some people. In fact, the foundation and conditions for stable economic growth have not been reversed. A huge economy is bound to usher in a downward process before "high growth" is switched to "medium and high speed growth". At present, the main reason for this "drop in" is also the necessary cost to take the initiative in carrying out economic transformation, promoting reform and improving quality. Rational analysts do not deny that efforts in these directions are fundamental to the healthy development of China's economy in the future.

Also, the decision-making level is concerned about "grasping the established" Expanding domestic demand "We must speed up the measures for steady growth, speed up the preliminary work and construction progress of key investment projects, timely allocate budgetary funds, and strive to maintain the economic operation at a reasonable interval", which means that even if the economy is "down" to a certain critical point, there will be enough "bottom up" means to release.

Second, in our view, the single day surge at the end of March is also a natural reaction at a special point.

We know that China's first quarter international balance of payments data is about to be launched. Historical experience shows that seasonal factors make March trade data tend to be better than February. It can be optimistic that the economic data released by the US last weekend looks good. In March, the Philadelphia manufacturing index far exceeded expectations, and the leading economic indicators increased significantly in February. The United States Department of labor released the week March 15th as the week when the initial increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits was lower than economists had expected. The report showed that the number of unemployed Americans increased to 320 thousand during the week. Economists expected that the number of unemployed Americans who were seasonally adjusted for the week was 325 thousand.

The above data, together with a series of indicators of economic stability in Europe recently, will undoubtedly bring certain opportunities to China's exports, and the corresponding export figures will naturally be better than February. That is to say, the time factor also explains why large fluctuations occur at this time.

Now, it is only necessary to use various market news more flexibly to adjust to the situation. The purpose is to increase exchange rate flexibility, and at the same time, with a little bit of money for the speculators to bet on a certain direction.